2 thoughts on “The Improbability of Dobbs”

  1. It is striking how the piece highlights the sheer statistical anomaly of the Dobbs decision given the previous landscape of legal precedent. I am curious if the author considers the role of specific judicial philosophy shifts in making such an improbable outcome seem inevitable in retrospect.

    • Oh, the role of shifts toward a specifically originalist judicial philosophy was absolutely crucial, no doubt. You can say that GIVEN those shifts, the outcome was inevitable. But the point of my article was that for those shifts to occur was not at all inevitable. They would not have occurred without the nomination and confirmation of Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. And I think that none of those nominations and confirmations would have been successful if not for the circumstances I listed – circumstances which themselves were very improbable. Would you agree with that?

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